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Foreign Policy |
Where rivals are entrenched in their rigid ideological and political stance, a fresh perspective is needed. I am no different than many others who are worried by the local and international implications of the ongoing Israeli - Palestinian conflict. However, I do try to make a difference through modest contributions to the continuous efforts towards achieving peace in the region.
Click here to view my Middle East Blog
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| David Martin Abrahams |
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The possible influence of a Palestinian state on Egypt, Jordan and Syria
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By David Martin Abrahams
Dec 09, 2009
The lion's share of the regional and international actors involved in the Middle East conflict, agree that an independent Palestinian state is a must. Political leaders, statesmen and international organizations alike think that only a clear cut solution will prevent the region from deteriorating further into violence and political stagnation.
The focus of the parties involved, as well as of the media, lies on Israel and the Palestinians: how will the political systems in both sides sustain the need to take historical decisions facing harsh opposition? What will be the peoples' response? These questions are indeed critical, but I think they ignore the importance of an independent Palestinian state on the regional political system, and especially on Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The "conflict policy" of these three states contains a blend of political pragmatism in their foreign policy, and ideological stance in their interior policy.
The enormous efforts that Egypt takes to end Gilad Shalit's affair and to bridge the breach between Hamas and Fatah, indicate its will to regain its hegemony as the political leader of the Arab World. Since the end of the 19th century and until Gamal Abdel Nasser's death in 1970, Egypt was the political, economic and cultural center of the Arab world. The rising economic power of the oil principalities, along with the peace agreement with Israel, have been consistently eroding Egypt's regional hegemony. Moreover, Egypt has to cope with ever mounting internal problems: population explosion; extremist (and sometimes violent) Islamic movements; a weak economy, lacking real growth factors, which leads to brain drain. Egypt's fragile position might enjoy a crucial boost if a Palestinian state is to be realized. In the international arena, the Egyptian involvement will undoubtedly regain its regional hegemony and international prestige – which will lead to more investments and help stabilizing the economic system. In the internal level, a Palestinian state will reinforce the population's support in the current regime, thus pushing aside the complex economic, social and demographic problems. Moreover, it will weaken the stance of extremists.
Jordan's situation is the most delicate. The majority of the Jordanian population is of Palestinian origin. The idea of establishing a Palestinian state in Jordan has enchanted many Israeli leaders, an idea that basically undermined the political structure of the Hashemite Kingdom (although this concept is no longer acceptable by mainstream Israeli politics). Though Jordan always had a strong affinity to the West Bank due to economic and familial reasons, already in 1988 it announced the cutting of linkage between the Kingdom and the West Bank. The Jordanian interest in establishing a Palestinian state is the strongest and the most sincere of all three states reviewed. King Abdullah has been warning recently from the dangers of stagnation, and the souring relationship between Israel and Jordan. The delicate demographic situation in the Kingdom, along with the strong anti-Israeli sentiment in the Jordanian political system as well as the population, create massive pressure on the Jordanian leadership. Correspondingly, failing to solve the conflict will lead to Palestinian wave of violence which might eventually boil into Jordan.
The Syrian approach towards the conflict is, of course, totally different. Leveraging its contacts with its Iranian and Lebanese allies, Syria strives to put pressure on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights. For this reason, Syria has been hosting the offices of the main Palestinian terror organizations (such as Hamas) in the last decade. The Syrian interest in an independent Palestinian state is not unequivocal: it is clear that a "Palestine first" solution will resolve the most complex conflict in the region, hence pushing aside the urgency of the Syrian demand to regain the Golan Heights. Indeed, due to this reason Syria supports the uncompromising Palestinian political/terrorist movements. Syria is certainly aware of the dividends it might gain from actively helping to achieve a Palestinian state – mainly bettering the relationship with the US. But, as for now, the internal interest of gaining control over the Golan Heights is no less important than promoting a Palestinian state.
A famous proverb says that the best success comes after the greatest disappointment. The peace process in the Middle East has gone through so many disappointments and failures, so that will not be able to sustain much more. All we can do is hope that the interests of Egypt, Syria and Jordan will be congruent in order to give the peace process the boost it needs.
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